2024-25 Political Economy Analysis

Trump's 2025 Economy

Latest News Trump's Economy in Process 2017 Tax Cut Extension Affects Many Trumponomics Tariffs

mmm

Existing Tariffs and Uncertanty
Create Real Economy Anxiety

April 12 Apple, Nvidia Score Tariff Exemptions
April 1 Vizion Inc latest estimated available 7-day supply chain data

Trump's Economy in Process 4/16/25

Inflation Unemployment Growth Deficits Debt

2025 Economy Outlook Source 2025 ECONOMIC indicators Many Unhappy if 2017 tax cut not extended Pre Election Economy Election Analysis Trump Inherits Good and Bad from Biden Post Election Activities

Post Election Activities

Trump Inherits a Strong Economy

and a Weak Fiscal Position

Credit card rate up 7+ % pts
as FED increased interest rates to slow inflation

Consumer Debt is Down 2 Points After COVID

Interest Payments Crash Harris,
Will They Crush Trump?

More US Oil Didn't Help Biden, Is Trump Looking to Russia and Saudi Arriba? To be continued into 2025 US Economy Getting More Consistent US Economy Rebounded Well 2025 Indicators Old Recent News Federal appeals court final decision blocks $470 billion Biden's student debt cancelation. Many of ± 7.5 million Americans who signed up for debt cancellation will see 100-200 point loss in credit scores. Latest Economic News The Big Questions 1. Inflation kindled by tariffs 2. Unemployment kindled by less federal spending 3. Supreme Court chevron effect 4. Interest Rates 5. Will Business join States and copycat DOGE spending cuts?

Pre Election 2024 Economy Analysis Pre-election analysis updates ended 10/5/24 Covid Lockdown Handled Well by Washington Trump-Biden Risked Inflation to Lower Unemployment Short Recession Inflation Getting Back To Normal Presidents and Federal Reserve Responded Well US Growth Led the Industrialized World Small Business is Booming Latest Data and Discussion Topics See 2024 Election please share Walter

More US Oil Didn't Help Biden,
Is Trump Looking to Russia and Saudi Arriba?

To be continued into 2025

US Economy Getting More Consistent

US Economy Rebounded Well

More 2025 Indicators

Old Recent News

Federal appeals court final decision
blocks $470 billion Biden's student debt cancelation.
Many of ± 7.5 million Americans who signed up for debt cancellation
will see 100-200 point loss in credit scores.

Latest Economic News

3/6/25 Private layoffs up 245% to 172,000 as of 2/12/25,
so effect of both private and public layoffs
plus less public spending may begin to show in April.

Low world petroleum prices are a big positive as Trump battles the problem that
the negative effects of Trumponomics on economic growth will happen faster
than the positive effects on business and government.

3/6/25 Trump bows to political pressure
and again delays Mexico/Canada Tariffs.
Potash and vehicles imports were big winners.

50% of US imports from Mexico and 62% from Canada may still face tariffs.

When Will Trump Own a 2025 Recession
Drags Increased student loans payments, nonprofit's tax-exempt status risk,
especial collages, tariff anxiety and their negative macro effect,
cuts to the federal workforce, the clampdown on immigration labor,
and a potential drag on business investment amid so much policy uncertainty.
Tail Winds New tariff deal with Canada and Mexico, new trade agreement with GB
similar to the pro US 2018 agreement with S. Korea, 2019 pro US agreement with Japan,
US Russian peace agreements includes increase in world oil supplies

The Big Questions

1. Inflation kindled by tariffs
2. Unemployment kindled by less federal spending
3. Supreme Court chevron effect
4. Interest Rates
5. Will Business join States and copycat
DOGE spending cuts?

fff

Cuts Will Hurt

Saving Money Lowering SNAP

Very Low Income Families Lose Under SNAP Proposal
Now. lose benefits at income of $13,748
Proposed, lose benefits immediately upon earning income

2020 Short Recession

A Two-Quarter Recession

Inflation was Transitional San Francisco Fed estimated supply chain shocks caused 60% of the U.S. inflation mid 6/21-mid 6/23
Federal Government Responded Well to Covid	Unemployment	Inflation Effect
Trump failed to stop Democrats and Media from forcing economic shutdown.
CARES Act (Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act) 3/27/20, $2.2 trillion spent	14.8%	Very Little
COVID-19 Relief Package (Consolidated Appropriations 12/27,20, $900 billion spent	6.7	Some
2021 Biden adds to the spending American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) - Enact 3/11, 2021, $1.9 spent	6.1	Moderate +
Fed predicts inflation transitional, but it stayed high longer because
Supply Chain bottlenecks as Covid slows globalization		Moderate
Feb4-20 22 Russia invades Ukraine		Moderate

	 Post WW 2  Cycle 
	Analysis

	       1. Competitive 
	Adjustments

	            2. Good 
	Jobs Gone

	            3. Severe 
	Recessions

	            4. Great 
	Recession

	            5. Great 
	Recession

	            6. Market 
	Bubbles

	            7. Big Cycles Over Last 100 Years
	
	@LHSummers

' quotes. What could replace the dollar "when Europe's a museum, 
	Japan's a nursing home, China's a jail, and Bit coin's an experiment"?

US Growth Leads the Industrialized World

1950-1980 Liberals Dominate with Roe Wade, Race Integration, Social Programs

1981-2016 Conservatives Dominate with Globalization, Tax Cuts-especially for business and rich

1988-2020 FED Easy money lead to High Business Income lead to massive Stock Market Gains.

1950 to 2020 Globalization leads to income inequality as the top 10 % do very well and
the lower 50% receive a small income increase and a large wellbeing boost from
Medicare and Medicaid, SS, Tax Credits and SNAP type assistance.

2020-2030 will be a time of insecurity leading to anxiety.

2024 Election Information

Small Business is Booming

PCE Items Priced

Discussion Topics

18-charts Explain US Economy/

Myths About Inflation video

Higher education bubble in the United States

Bloomberg.world economic indicators

Great Depression Myths

Myths About the Great Depression

Special Topics in Microeconomics

Successful Executive Orders

Fired inspectors general could sue for lack of notice,
but Trump would give notice and fire them again.

USAID shut down proceeding,
cost being debated

Successful Day One Executive Orders

1. US Gender Identity Defined
as two biologically distinct sexes — male and female

2. Rescinded 78 Biden-era executive actions,
orders and presidential memoranda.

3. Ended Diverse, Equity and Inclusion programs,
made illegal by

The Big Questions
1. Inflation kindled by tariffs
2. Unemployment kindled by less federal spending
3. Supreme Court chevron effect
4. Interest Rates
5. Will Business join states

State governor copycat DOGE cost cutting

a Supreme Court 2024 decision

Reactions

1. Federal Judge Orders Trump Move Faster 2/10/25

A judge determined Trump not taking sufficient action to follow his order.
Another 9 federal courts have temporarily halted or rejected Trump actions
Vice President JD Vance openly challenged judicial authority. .
Seven Lawsuits Against Trump to Watch

How We Got Here

US Economic History 1900 to 2017

What the Obamas' $65 million book advance actually means

Graft and Corruption

10. Trump family bit coins

9. Finance market shenanigans
potential of 10 if continued

10.Tariff exemptions for sale

8. Trump’s administration exempted smart phones, computers and other electronics from its so-called reciprocal tariffs, representing a major reprieve for global technology manufacturers including Apple Inc. and Nvidia Corp. even if it proves a temporary one.

Pre Election 2024 Economy Analysis
Pre-election analysis updates ended 10/5/24

Covid Lockdown Handled Well by Washington

Trump-Biden Risked Inflation to Lower Unemployment
Short Recession

Inflation Getting Back To Normal

Presidents and Federal Reserve Responded Well

US Growth Led the Industrialized World

Small Business is Booming

Latest Data and Discussion Topics

See 2024 Election please share Walter